About & Methodology
Purpose
This calculator provides an interactive way to explore marriage demographics within Christian populations in the United States. It combines U.S. Census Bureau data on marital status with Pew Research Center data on religious demographics to estimate the number of unmarried individuals by age, denomination, and religiosity level.
The tool allows users to compare outcomes under different marriage structure scenarios, providing an objective, data-driven perspective on marriage demographics.
Methodology
Data Combination
The calculator combines two primary data sources:
- Census Bureau Table B12002: Provides total population counts by sex, age bracket, and marital status (never married, married, divorced, widowed, separated).
- Pew Religious Landscape Study: Provides the percentage of each age group that identifies as Christian, broken down by denomination and religiosity level.
Calculation Steps
- Get unmarried population from Census (never married + divorced + optionally widowed)
- Apply Christian percentage for age bracket from Pew data
- Apply denomination filter if selected (% of Christians in that denomination)
- Apply religiosity filter if selected (% who are devout/practicing/nominal)
- Calculate surplus = Unmarried Women - Available Unmarried Men
Age Matching Logic
The calculator includes an optional age-range overlap feature to model realistic marriage patterns where older men may seek younger women. When enabled:
- Same bracket only: Men and women are only matched within their own age bracket
- +/- 10 years: Men in a given bracket may match with women one bracket younger
- +/- 20 years: Men may match with women up to two brackets younger
Religiosity Definitions
Based on Pew Research measures of religious practice:
- Nominal: Identifies as Christian but attends services less than monthly and prays rarely
- Practicing: Attends services 1-3 times per month, prays weekly
- Devout: Attends weekly or more, prays daily, considers religion "very important"
Limitations
- Census data is survey-based with sampling error (CPS ASEC ~95,000 households)
- Pew data is survey-based with ±2-3% margin of error
- Gender-specific Christian rates by age are interpolated from overall gender gap data
- Marriage market is not geographically uniform
- Assumes within-religious-group marriage preference
- Does not account for individual preferences, education, income, or location
- Age preferences, geographic proximity, and individual circumstances are not modeled
- The calculator assumes within-religious-group marriage, which may not reflect actual patterns
- Cohabitation and non-traditional relationships are not included in "married" counts
Data Sources
U.S. Census Bureau - Current Population Survey ASEC 2023
Table 2: Marital Status of the Population 15 Years and Over by Sex and Age. Primary source for population counts by marital status, age, and gender.
U.S. Census Bureau - America's Families and Living Arrangements 2023
Comprehensive tables on marital status, living arrangements, and family characteristics.
Pew Research Center - 2023-24 Religious Landscape Study
Comprehensive survey of 36,908 U.S. adults on religious identification, beliefs, and practices. Primary source for Christianity rates by age and religiosity levels.
Pew Research Center - RLS Public Use Dataset
Downloadable dataset for detailed cross-tabulations. Requires statistical software (SPSS, Stata, R).
Pew Research Center - Gender Composition Analysis
Analysis showing 34 Christian women vs 28 Christian men per 100 U.S. adults. Source for overall gender gap in Christianity.
Pew Research Center - Religious Group Demographics
Detailed demographic profiles including gender composition by denomination. Source for historically Black Protestant gender gap (64% women, 35% men).
Institute for Family Studies - Sex Ratios in the Pews
Analysis of gender ratios among unmarried Christians by denomination and religiosity. Source for devout practitioner ratio (85 men per 100 women) and denomination-specific gender gaps.
Data Updates
This calculator is designed to be easily updated as new data becomes available:
- Census data: American Community Survey releases new 1-year estimates annually, typically in September
- Religious data: Pew Research conducts Religious Landscape Studies periodically (most recent: 2023-24)
- Data files are stored as JSON for easy manual updates or automated processing